Reckoning

It was still too early this week to know what the long-range results of the shortlived Balkan campaign would be, but certain immediate credits and debits could be entered on the balance sheet of war. They were weighted in the black for Germany, in the red for Great Britain.

Potential. Yugoslavia is the most important copper-producing country in Europe, and also mines bauxite (aluminum ore)--but Germany was getting these things from the Yugoslavs beforehand. Greece has not much to offer the Nazis but tobacco and trouble. The two countries, therefore, did not add much materially to the Nazi war potential. In fact, disruption of communications, the destruction of buildings, all the dislocations of war, would temporarily hurt it a little. On the other hand, losing the countries would not hurt Britain's supplies.

Casualties. In men lost by death, injury and capture, the Nazis came off far ahead. They knocked off the entire Yugoslav and Greek Armies, perhaps 1,000,000 men. British losses were not known last week and may not have been heavy, but the British, with one-third the divisional strength of the Germans, can ill afford to lose even handfuls of men. The highest estimate of German losses, which the Germans are almost certain to deny, is 60,000 men. This seems heavy, but it is no more than 10% of Germany's Balkan strength, and Adolf Hitler has hundreds of thousands of idle troops with which to fill the breach.

Position. In strategic values, the German victory was complete. Except for Gibraltar, Britain now had not one square foot of continental European soil under its military control, and had no immediate prospect of getting a major point of reentry. The Germans had every prospect of being able to go on to further triumphs.

Experience. The British got acquainted with German methods here as never before, and learned, as never before: 1) the definitive importance of air superiority in this kind of war; 2) that tank columns can be stopped by infantry and artillery if the planes covering them are stopped first; 3) that when tank columns are stopped, mass infantry attacks must be expected.

Morale. The Germans had another victory, perhaps dampened by their losses. The British had had their worst shock since Dunkirk. But neither may have as much effect on the fortunes of the war as the encouragement which the German victory gave Spain and Vichy to aid the Axis, as the alarm which may lead Turkey to give in instead of fighting.

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