Something Brewing

GERMANY--RUSSIA

From Moscow last week came a strong smell of diplomatic fermentation. On the eve of German Ambassador Friedrich Werner Graf von der Schulenburg's return from a long stay in Berlin the Russian press made two significant announcements that: 1) 12,000 German troops had landed in Finland, within 50 miles of the Russian base at Hanko; 2) since March 18 shipment of war materials across the U.S.S.R. had been forbidden.

As always happens when Russia or Germany makes a move which by the use of a little imagination can be interpreted as hostile to the other, wistful thinkers saw in the first announcement a sign that Germany and Russia would soon be at each other's throats. The second announcement they interpreted as a move to keep supplies from reaching Germany and Japan.

But although Adolf Hitler may want the Ukraine and Joseph Stalin want to see Germany weakened, neither wants to fight the other right now any more than he wants the smallpox. Germany receives via Russia none of the banned materials (munitions, aircraft parts and accessories, machines and tools for making munitions, explosives, poisons). And Japan took the announcement with a smile.

The truth is that the principal shipments of war materials through the Soviet Union have been U.S. supplies going to China via Vladivostok and Swedish guns going to Turkey via Leningrad. The closing of both these avenues helps Germany and Japan some, helps Russia more, since it makes China and Turkey more dependent on Russia. No ban was placed on the shipment of supplies directly from Russia.

The effect of the Finland report was to bring from both Helsinki and Berlin prompt denials that more German troops were in Finland than those authorized by last year's agreement to cross Finland on their way to Norway. Joseph Stalin, disturbed by growing pro-Axis sentiment in Finland, doubtless sought to serve notice that he still kept an eye on that country.

Shrewdest interpretation of the Russian announcements, as well as of recent Russian gestures in the Balkans, was given by longtime Moscow Correspondent Walter Duranty, now in Tokyo for the North American Newspaper Alliance. Wrote he: "What is really coming is a new spurt of diplomatic activity and negotiation between the two countries, for which the Soviet Union and Germany are now engaged in preliminary jockeying. The question involved is ... of closer cooperation and the price to be paid therefor. . . .

"The gestures are so many indications to Germany that the Soviet Union must not be neglected. I do not suggest that Russia has hitched her wagon to Hitler's star, but I do think the Russians now feel the need to show Germany and the world in general that this is not the case. Not for Winston Churchill's blue eyes, nor to gratify President Roosevelt, but for practical business purposes in the coming dicker with the Germans."

Stalin and Hitler have much they can still do for each other before they finally come to grips, if ever they do. For Russia's passive assistance in Hitler's drive into the Near East, Stalin may get a free hand in part of the Middle East and an outlet to the Indian Ocean. Last week reports continued of Russian troop concentrations within striking distance of Iran. Whatever diplomatic effect the decree might have, Joseph Stalin was also readying Russia's creaking transport system to serve the Red Army.

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