Something Wrong?

The silent war of nerves being waged between two masters of the nerve technique, Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin, last week reached a new climax.

Suddenly at midweek world capitals buzzed with news and speculation. The London Daily Mail burst out in a banner headline: GERMANS MASS AGAINST STALIN. The Daily Telegraph & Morning Post: 130 NAZI DIVISIONS ON SOVIET BORDER. From Berne came a report that Germany would march June 15. In Helsinki correspondents telephoning reports of new German demands on Russia had their connections suddenly cut. U.S. newspapers devoted thousands of words to facts and just plain talk.

The Facts. Out of all the speculation these facts emerged as indisputable.

> Germany was moving heavy troop concentrations to the Russian frontier. This was admitted by the Soviet news agency Tass, with the qualification that the movement "was connected, it should be assumed, with other motives having no bearing on Soviet-German relations."

> Russia also had troops concentrated close to the frontier. Tass admitted, this, too, calling the concentrations "summer-camp drills" and "maneuvers." To call them "inimical to Germany," said Tass, "is absurd."

> More German troops moved into Finland, and this time the Finnish Government did not bother to rationalize the fact. Instead, correspondents were barred from traveling in the regions where the troops were concentrated. In Moscow the Soviet press accused Finns of persecuting members of the Society for Peace & Friendship with the Soviet Union.

> Premier Ion Antonescu went to see Adolf Hitler in Munich, got a cordial greeting, flew back to Rumania. From two sources came the report that all Rumanian roads to Russia and Russian-snatched Bessarabia had been closed and mined. The Rumanian Army was mobilized.

> Two important diplomats rushed home to report. To London went Ambassador to Russia Sir Stafford Cripps; to Moscow, Russia's Ambassador to Turkey Serge Vinogradov. Sir Stafford's arrival coincided with the British press reports of German-Russian trouble; Comrade Vinogradov's departure coincided with the announcement of a Turkish-Rumanian trade agreement.

> German diplomats showed the latest Blitzkrieg films to the Red Army's general staff in Moscow.

The Talk. If all these facts did not add up to an impending Russo-German war, at least they summed up a crisis. Including Finland and Rumania, both of which have territorial grudges against Russia, Russia's frontiers were spiked with bayonets for a distance of 3,000 miles. Premier Antonescu has repeatedly promised his people the return of Bessarabia, and the Russo-Finnish frontier is only 100 miles from Leningrad.

Speculation as to what Adolf Hitler was demanding ran to incredible extremes. His demands on the grain-rich Ukraine were reported to go as far as joint sovereignty. He was reported asking control of the Caucasus, including the Baku oil fields. Some said he wanted the entire Middle East, with passage for his troops through the Ukraine and the Caucasus.

Tass denied that any negotiations were in progress. So did Ambassador Ivan Maisky in London. This was, quite possibly, literally true. A credible explanation of what was going on came from a German source in Stockholm. Said this informant :

"All Germany wants is a complete alliance with Russia. I know we have not yet made any specific demands on Russia, although it is not impossible that some hints or suggestions were made. . . .

"We are tired of the perpetual Russian threat, and also of our inability to exploit Russian resources as completely as we would like. Short of military cooperation, Russia must occupy a position similar to that which Italy occupies now. Then the infiltration of our military experts and technicians would occur without any trouble. We would also know how to get guarantees that nothing would threaten us behind our backs if we were occupied elsewhere."

The Deal. The British suspected that the whole thing might be a feint to mask a new blow at Britain. Sir Stafford Cripps saw no hope for Britain in Russia: this week he said he would not return to Moscow. In Ankara British Ambassador Sir Hughe Knatchbull-Hugessen talked for an hour with Foreign Minister Suekrue Saracoglu, trying to find out what was up. Turkey would be an important item in a Russo-German deal, and Turkey is a gateway to the Middle East and Suez.

Any deal between Germany and Russia must be predicated on a meeting of minds between Hitler and Stalin. Hitler must estimate how much Stalin will concede and refrain from asking for much more. Stalin must estimate how much he can afford to concede and take a position from which he can comfortably withdraw. If either Hitler or Stalin miscalculates, the result may be war, though neither wants war.

Last week's crisis aroused the suspicion that somewhere something had gone wrong, that either Hitler's or Stalin's calculations had been upset. Adolf Hitler's time-tested technique is to increase his demands when his foe weakens. But Adolf Hitler also has a time-tested technique of lowering his demands when his foe stiffens. Then he takes the best he can get and goes back for more later on.

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