50,000 Planes a Year

50,000 Planes A Year?

The U.S. and Britain are already turning out more warplanes than the Axis. This is the astonishingly hopeful conclusion of a man who rates as a real expert in aircraft production.

This conclusion could not be lightly laughed off. It was made in Aviation, top-flight technical magazine, by T. P. Wright, assistant chief of OPM's aircraft branch and onetime production expert of Curtiss-Wright Corp.

". . . Without counting Russia," he wrote, "the rate of production of England, augmented by half of the U.S. production, is now greater than the output of Germany and Italy plus production of the conquered countries; and the total air power of the Allies will be greater than that of the Axis powers early in 1942."

To arrive at this conclusion, Ted Wright undoubtedly had access to unpublished facts. He also relied on his demonstrated ability to predict future production accurately. In January 1941, when U.S. manufacturers were producing slightly more than 1,000 planes a month, he laid out his production predictions for the next 18 months. In the nine months since then OPM has had to revise its own predictions several times, but T. P. Wright's practically agree with the figures of actual production.

Expert Wright bases his predictions on what he calls a "parameter," i.e., a yardstick based on factory floor space, labor available, tool supply, management, etc. Having seen his U.S. parameter tested and found right, he set out to develop yardsticks for Britain and Germany, based them on what he had seen of both countries' factories, and knows of them from recent reports.

His finding: Britain's warplane production is now passing 1,800 a month (see chart), will pass 1,900 at year's end. His guess on Germany's output: about 2,250 a month now, about 2,300 by year's end. From the best-informed parameter of all, he measured U.S. production at year's end at more than 2,400 a month.

Since the Government will publish no more warplane-production figures after October's, T. P. Wright's estimates may be the only good clue to production for months to come. He estimates U.S. production of 39,000 planes a year by the end of 1942, 49,000 by the end of 1943 (close to the President's promise of "50,000 planes a year").

These were figures that Adolf Hitler should view with alarm. And 1942's output will cut down heavily the proportion of training planes (now a little less than 50%) in U.S. production. It will also step up heavily the proportion of the Air Force's real sluggers: light, medium and heavy bombers. Most pause-giving prospect of all is the expected U.S. production of heavy (four-motored) bombers. They are now coming off the assembly lines of Consolidated and Boeing at a speed never equalled before. So far, this production is just a trickle. With the help of the auto industry, the U.S. is already building and equipping plants for the most awesome sky navy the world has ever known: 500 four-motored bombers a month. That should be the roaring rate before 1943's end.

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