Cancer: Up or Down?

At the American Cancer Society's annual meeting in Manhattan last week, Statistician E. Cuyler Hammond posed a question: "Are we batting our heads against a stone wall--an insurmountable barrier?" On the basis of crude figures he reported: "We are faced with a frustrating fact. Ten short years ago, 177,000 Americans died of cancer. This year it is estimated that 243,000 Americans will die of this disease."

Statistician Hammond (TIME, June 13) was quick to point out that a lot of cancer figures can be misleading. Up to 1930, some of the apparent increase was due to improvements in diagnosis and in the reporting system. Since 1930, the overall cancer death rate among males has risen from 115 to 146 per 100,000 in a year, but this is due almost entirely to the explosive increase in lung cancer; in other forms of cancer the rate is virtually unchanged. Among women, the cancer death rate has actually decreased, from 141 in 1930 to 133 in 1950.

Since cancer is mainly a disease of the second half of life (95% Of cases are among people over 35), Hammond made no bones about the growing problem: "In 1900 there were only 23 million Americans 35 years of age and over. Today there are 70 million. [In 1965] there will be 81 million, and [in 1975] at least 86 million. Thus no matter how successful the [cancer control] program may be, the magnitude of the problem will increase. If death rates continue at exactly the present level, the annual cancer death toll will rise to 288,000 within ten years.

What is worse, if lung-cancer death rates increase at the present tempo, 306,000 Americans will die of cancer in 1965. Can we prevent this from coming true?"

Statistician Hammond hopefully answered his own question: "One-third of all those who die of cancer could be saved by methods known to us now." If this is accomplished in the next ten years and lung cancer is controlled, only 173,000 will die in 1965. But, said Hammond, there is a big if: these lives can be saved only if physicians apply present knowledge with maximum effectiveness. And what doctors can do depends basically on what cancer victims do--how soon they go for examinations when they have suspicious symptoms, how soon they have an operation after it is recommended, and what kind of operation they agree to.

Other cancer facts and figures discussed at the meeting:

P:Cancer of the cervix is now curable in 75% of cases (some say 100%) when treated promptly after the first symptoms appear, but the actual cure rate now is closer to 40% because too many women ignore the early danger signals.

P:Cancer of the rectum is 70% curable, 20% cured; of the larynx, 80% and 15%; of the mouth, 65% and 30%. P:Breast cancer,the commonest form among Western women,* has been the subject of the most intensive danger signal and self-examination campaigns. It is also a cause of disagreement among doctors trying to judge the value of surgery in some types of cases. In particular, the effectiveness of the most radical operation for advanced breast cancer cannot yet be gauged because it is too new--doctors will not speak of cures until patients have survived at least five years. But analysis of thousands of cases shows that if breast cancer is operated on before the disease has spread to the armpit, the chance of cure is twice that in later operations. Experts put the figure at 70%; in some medical centers it is higher still. P:Lung cancer is the runaway villain. New York State (outside New York City) has about the world's best-kept records on it, reports that in 20 years the rate has zoomed 505% in men, 55% in women. Among men, this was the only cancer rate to go up, and the increase was enough to boost the overall male cancer rate by 21%. Among women the overall rate dropped 16%. Connecticut reports that five-year cures of all cancers increased by about two-thirds in 15 years. The 1950 rates: 20% among men, 32% among women. Today's U.S. cure rates are estimated at 25% to 30%.

*Though less so, apparently, among those who nurse their babies.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.