Rocky's Crisis

At 60, Nelson Rockefeller has served as New York's Governor for ten years, unsuccessfully sought his party's presidential nomination three times and, in past weeks, been passed over for two top posts in the Nixon Cabinet. To some, it seemed, his last hurrah had sounded. Last week Rockefeller put a halt to any premature postmortems by announcing that he intends to run for re-election in 1970. If he succeeds, he will be only the second Governor in New York history to serve uninterruptedly for more than twelve years.* The key to Rockefeller's decision to run again is his eagerness to show that his $6 billion Urban Development Corporation can effectively rebuild city slums. As one Rockefeller aide puts it, "The sound of the steam shovel will soon be heard in the land." More immediately, however, Rockefeller faces a fiscal crisis of immense proportions. The 1969-70 budget is likely to exceed $6 billion, leaving the state with an estimated $1 billion deficit.

Taxes Are a Clue. The cause of the crisis is the steadily rising cost of state responsibilities. Previously approved increases in state aid for education, welfare doles and Medicaid costs alone are expected to add $800 million to the New York budget.

Painful as it is politically, Rockefeller's only practical solution will be to raise the sales tax from 2% to 3% and increase the personal income tax, already one of the nation's highest. Though Rockefeller promised in 1962 not to raise taxes, several levies have been increased. Largely as a result, Rockefeller's popularity has dropped.

The new budget means a tough fight with the legislature and also provides a clue as to why Rockefeller chose to announce his political intentions so early. By declaring now, he hopes to avoid being labeled a lame duck and thereby to achieve greater leverage in dealing with the legislature.

Roadblock. He will also have to face considerable opposition to new programs to improve transportation and eliminate water and air pollution.

While the announcement indicates the direction of Rockefeller's political future, it also throws a temporary roadblock in the path of New York City's Mayor John Lindsay. At the moment, Lindsay's popularity in the city is at a low ebb, and the Governor's office would have been an attractive alternative should his citywide appeal continue to diminish. The. Rockefeller decision eliminates that alternative. Moreover, the mayor would probably have little chance of dislodging fellow Republican Charles E. Goodell from his Senate seat. What ever his prospects in the next two years, Lindsay's long-range future still looks bright. The possibility of running for Governor in 1974 looms large, and would put him in the catbird seat for a presidential try in 1976. For Rockefeller, the campaign for re-election has already begun. One of his aides predicted that it will be much like his previous drives--"a lot of dash, a lot of meetings and just a little money."

* The first was Governor George Clinton, who served 21 years spaced over two terms running from 1777 to 1795 and from 1801 to 1804.

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