Under the Velvet Glove

One year after its eastern half broke away to become Bangladesh, Pakistan is again torn by disunity. Reminiscent of events that preceded civil war in East Pakistan two years ago, President Zulfikar AH Bhutto (see box page 27) has 1) dismissed the governors of Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier province, both popular leaders of the opposition National Awami Party, 2) sent troops into Baluchistan to put down tribesmen sympathetic to the ousted governor, and 3) touched off a storm of disapproval with a draft constitution that would in effect continue his own rule for another 15 years. To make matters worse, the army operations in Baluchistan were reportedly supervised by Chief of Staff General Tikka Khan, the former martial-law administrator of East Pakistan who earned notoriety as the "butcher of Bengal."

Another violent showdown may be near. Last week National Awami Leader Khan Abdul Wali Khan demanded that Bhutto reinstate the governors. "We will take these rights by force if they are not conceded by will," he told a huge angry crowd in Peshawar. Ghaus Bakhsh Bizenjo, the ousted Baluchistan governor, called on the National Assembly to halt the military's interference: "I would like to inform the public that the army action will destroy the unity of what remains of Pakistan forever," he said. Even Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party was divided. The P.P.P. governor in Sind, which borders on Baluchistan, resigned in protest against what he called a "wicked, power-hungry clique."

Bhutto's actions threatened to destroy a fragile peace worked out last year with the opposition National Awami Party, which is the dominant political force in Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier province. Baluchi and Pathan tribesmen in the two provinces have long been agitating for greater autonomy and a larger share of the economic pie. Although the National Awami Party has never advocated independence from Pakistan, various other political groups in the provinces do. Recently a group called "Azad [Free] Baluchistan" has sought to unite Pakistani Baluchis with fellow tribesmen in Iran to form a new nation. Though the organization is small and appears to be composed mostly of students, it has opened an office in Baghdad and set up a clandestine radio in the area, straining Iraq's relations with Iran. This threat has prompted a growing military alliance between Iran and Pakistan, neither of which wants to lose a strategic chunk of its territory.

To further complicate matters, Pathan tribesmen would like to create a new state within Pakistan to be called Pushtunistan (Pathan Nation). They have been getting help and support from Pathans in neighboring Afghanistan. Adding to the ferment and intrigue, both the P.P.P. and the N.A.P. have organized large paramilitary groups to protect what each considers to be its own turf.

Last month coal-mine owners, disgruntled over nationalization of their mines, and landlords, who had had their estates reduced by land reforms, staged a protest in the Las Bela district of Baluchistan. Government troops began moving into the area. Governor Bizenjo charged that the rebellion was actually inspired by the government as a pretext to discredit N.A.P. leadership before it could marshal opposition to Bhutto's proposed new constitution.

Then, two weeks ago, Pakistani intelligence agents discovered a large cache of Soviet-made arms at the Iraqi embassy in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad. Bhutto charged that the arms had been smuggled in to aid a civilian coup against him, though he has offered no conclusive proof. He used the alleged plot as an excuse to oust the Iraqi ambassador, sack the two governors and send additional troops into Baluchistan.

Bhutto hinted that the National Awami Party was involved in the incident; Awami leaders denied the charge, and demanded a top-level judicial and National Assembly inquiry.

Pakistan's internal turmoil came at a time when Bhutto has been seeking closer alignment with the Communist world. Last November Pakistan withdrew from the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, and recognized North Korea and North Viet Nam. He has continued good relations with China, which provides economic and military assistance. Last week, in fact, Mrs. Bhutto was in Peking, where she made an impassioned plea for the return of Pakistani P.O.W.s from India. The Pakistani President has also moved for an accommodation with India, meeting at Simla last year with Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to define the postwar ceasefire line and reduce tensions in the area.

Reforms. At home Bhutto has made some important reforms, including nationalizing the coal mines, reducing large landholdings, and improving the country's backward educational system. At the same time, he has been careful not to alienate the armed forces. Military expenses make up 56% of Pakistan's budget, and have contributed heavily to inflation; retail prices have risen nearly 30% in the past 14 months.

To keep his popular backing, Bhutto must get Pakistan's 90,000 P.O.W.s back from India, which hinges on his recognition of Bangladesh. Last week three young Pakistanis burst into the London offices of the Indian High Commission armed with swords, acid spray and toy guns. They took eight staff members hostage, apparently to draw attention to the P.O.W. issue. British police, thinking the guns were real, killed two youths, Basharat Hussain and Mohammed Hanif Hussain, both 19, and captured the third, a 15-year-old.

The larger question is whether Bhutto can find a way to hold the country together. Much may depend on whether he continues to pursue the politics of confrontation or instead seeks some form of political conciliation. For the moment, he seems bent on the former. Despite his initial promise to restore democracy to Pakistan, the proposed constitution is clearly designed to preserve dictatorial powers for himself. If he insists on that course, warns Malik Ghulam Jilani, a political leader who fled to London for fear of his life, it will lead to the "demolition of Pakistan, brick by brick and stone by stone. Bhutto has tried to fool the people," he adds, "but now the people have seen his iron fist under the velvet glove."

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