An Ex-President Is Available

Ford's chances of running are remote, but the possibility exists

He is not a candidate for President, and will not become one. Unless . . . well, says Gerald Ford, "if my party should happen to want me to be a candidate, of course I would accept the opportunity." And what are the chances of that? "Remote," Ford concedes. But when asked if he can detect any "groundswell" among Republicans for him, he replies, "It is loud enough to be heard."

But only by Jerry Ford, insist top aides to the candidates actually in the race for the G.O.P. nomination. They maintain that the expressions of interest in a Ford candidacy are coming primarily from G.O.P. fence sitters who want an excuse not to back Ronald Reagan, George Bush or their rivals until someone looks like a winner. Says California Republican Chairman Truman Campbell: "Ford is a comfortable place of refuge."

Ford has qualities that make him attractive to many Republicans. He restored trust in the White House after Nixon, and he ran Jimmy Carter an unexpectedly close race. When Ford left the presidency, the nation was in a mood that it now remembers with nostalgia: the Soviets seemed less menacing, and inflation appeared to be under control. Speaking to Western Union employees last week, Ford boasted: "When I came into office, the inflation rate was 12%, [and] in 30 months we cut it to 4.5%."

In any case, Ford will not let talk of an eventual candidacy die. Trim, tan and in splendid spirits, he is easily the most active non-candidate around, averaging 18 days of travel a month and earning about $500,000 a year on the rubber-chicken circuit. Last week was typical. He flew from his $692,000 home in Rancho Mirage, Calif., to Salt Lake City for a dinner speech to Utah Republicans, then went the next day to Las Vegas for a lunchtime address to the United Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Association. That afternoon the ex-President, wearing light blue paisley slacks, squeezed in a round of golf, scoring a 49 on the back nine. Then he gave another speech, at a $1,000-a-plate G.O.P. fund-raising buffet. While in Las Vegas, he was told by an admirer: "We need some of your experience to help us through the '80s."

Such encouraging words have convinced Robert Barrett, an aide on Ford's staff of eleven, who functions as a kind of campaign manager without portfolio, that "we have a base of support throughout the country of at least 15% to 20% without any campaign at all." And while Ford insists that he would be prompted to plunge into the race only by "unforeseen developments," his staff already has one in mind. Says an aide: "If Reagan gets less than 35% of the vote in New Hampshire, the stage is set for a more active role on our part."

If Ford did go for the nomination, he would start as a very long shot. Political professionals believe he would have to start almost immediately to mount a serious primary campaign. If he stays out beyond the end of February, he will miss the filing deadlines for primaries in which voters will choose almost 40% of the delegates to the G.O.P. Convention. But Ford shows no sign of making a move. Instead, last week he formally withdrew his name from the Connecticut primary. Ford could still run in the last few primaries, assuming he could raise money and create an organization. Many of his former campaign aides long ago joined the active candidates. Ford's 1976 manager, James Baker, is running the Bush campaign.

There is yet another possibility, which Ford discusses freely. Says he: "If there was a deadlocked convention, and if some support developed for me, of course I would respond." But if the convention does go beyond the first ballot--as no G.O.P. gathering has since 1948--party pros believe that supporters of the leading candidates would try to settle the nomination among themselves rather than turn to Ford. This year there are no deep ideological divisions or personal animosities that would prevent such deals. Anyone who speaks of a deadlocked convention turning to a dark horse, says a Republican National Committee official, "is talking about Warren G. Harding days."

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