Right Now: a Dead Heat

By John F. Stacks

A TIME poll shows the slightest shift could swing the election

They have barnstormed the country like jet-age traveling salesmen. They have jammed the airwaves with millions of dollars' worth of advertising. They have attacked each other's records ceaselessly. Their families and friends and surrogates have added their voices to the din of denunciation and promotion. Yet on the very threshold of the presidential election of 1980, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan remain just where they were at the beginning of their long campaign--locked in a virtual tie among registered voters in the U.S.

According to a survey for TIME completed last week by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., Carter has an insignificant 1-point lead over Reagan, 42% to 41%, compared with a 39% to 39% tie at the beginning of the fall campaign. The independent candidacy of Congressman John Anderson, however, has continued to sink, just as so many political experts in both parties predicted it would from the start. His share of the vote dropped from 15% in early September to 12% now.*

The mood of the electorate remains as it was at the beginning of the presidential campaign. Americans are disappointed by the choice of candidates they are offered, concerned about the many serious problems facing the country, and skeptical that any President can make much difference. They long for a change, yet are fearful of taking a chance on an inexperienced President.

Much of the avowed support for the candidates is still based on opposition to their opponents rather than on genuine enthusiasm for one man or another. Forty-three percent of Reagan's voters indicate they are more interested in voting against Carter than for Reagan. The President does not fare much better. Thirty-seven percent of Carter's supporters say they are really just anti-Reagan.

Even after having chosen Carter or Reagan, more than half of the voters say they have reservations about the abilities of their candidate. And the level of deeply committed support is extremely low; few cowbells are being rung at rallies throughout the land this fall. Sixty-one percent of the voters admit being unmoved by anyone in the race. Although this remains a somewhat grim and unhappy election, the fact that the decision will at long last be reached next week has heightened national attention and made even more important the presidential debate this week. Slowly, quietly, the patterns are changing. The poll indicates that President Carter is reclaiming traditional Democratic support. He is now backed by 66% of the Democrats, compared with the 59% who were for him in September. Most of this new strength comes from party members who had once defected to Anderson but who have come home to their party's nominee. Anderson now claims 9% of Democrats; in September he had 15%. Carter is also slowly getting the better of Reagan on some key political issues.

Most important, perhaps, is that Carter has emerged virtually unscathed from Reagan's relentless assault on his economic record, which was the Governor's prime point of attack. People still feel that inflation is the chief national problem; Reagan has been unable to convince voters that he could cope with it much better than Carter. Concern about unemployment, a threat for any incumbent, especially one who is a Democrat, has declined and more voters (35% compared with 32% in September) now feel the nation's economy will improve during the next few months.

Weighing all factors, voter confidence in Carter's ability to handle the economy has increased enough during the past two months to allow him to overcome Governor Reagan's lead on that issue. In early September Reagan won the confidence of 66% of the electorate for his ability to run the economy; 57% said they had similar faith in Carter. Now 69% of those surveyed express confidence in Carter and only 56% in Reagan.

At the same time, Carter has eliminated Reagan's lead on the issue of foreign affairs. Sixty-two percent say they have confidence in Carter on this point; 61% feel that way about Reagan. Carter is not being helped by the war between Iraq and Iran and the threat to stability in the gulf region; 60% of the voters say the conflict is no reason not to dump the incumbent. What does seem to be boosting Carter, however, is the fact that 46% of those surveyed believe Reagan might be "trigger happy," and 57% favor Carter as the candidate they "trust more not to overreact in times of crisis." Only 32% would feel safer with Reagan.

Thus the Carter camp's assault on Reagan as being a warmonger has achieved its purpose, although the advantage was gained at some cost to the President. Most voters (52%) say they think Carter has spent his time "smearing the other candidates" rather than "conducting a straightforward campaign" (45%).

Reagan, on the other hand, is given more credit for positive campaigning (54%).

Despite the tightness of the race between Carter and Reagan, the poll suggests that the President has more to gain in the closing days of the campaign than the Governor. The 13% of the sample who say they are unsure how they will vote acknowledge, when pressed, that they are leaning more toward Carter than Reagan (34% to 21%). Five percent of the total remain truly undecided. Carter's early advantage among women voters has widened slightly (49% to 33%) just as Reagan's advantage among men has grown (49% to 36%). Women fear mainly that Reagan would be too belligerent as President. Males and females feel much the same about two other issues that generally hurt Reagan. On the question of the pending Equal Rights Amendment, 61% of men and 59% of women are in favor of the measure; 56% of men and 55% of women are against an amendment banning abortions. Interestingly, nearly a third of Reagan's supporters believe, mistakenly, that their candidate is pro-ERA.

Considering the key industrial states as a whole (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania), Carter leads by a larger margin (43% to 36%) than he did in September (39% to 36%). One partial explanation may be that Catholics have shifted toward the President (43% favor him now, compared with 38% last month). On the other hand, however, Reagan is now even with Carter among blue-collar workers, whereas Carter led by 10 points in September. The race in the heavily populated industrial regions remains extremely close. The shift of very few percentage points would swing not only those states but the election as well.

Part of Carter's gain is coming from voters who are deserting Independent Anderson. The TIME survey indicates that those who still support Anderson will vote nearly 3 to 2 for Carter if they abandon the Congressman from Illinois. Failing to seize the middle ground on issues and ideology, Anderson is identified by the electorate as being the most liberal of the three candidates. It is also clear that Anderson has been unable to make much of an impression on voters; more than half say they simply do not know his stands on specific issues.

But Reagan still leads substantially in state-by-state electoral vote estimates, because in many ways he appeals more strongly to voters than Carter. More voters say they are excited about Reagan than Carter, for example, and this difference in hard-core support could be important in an election that could swing by a tiny margin.

Voters have also changed their minds about who is more likely to triumph. Despite the fact that those surveyed rank Carter even with Reagan, they now anticipate that Reagan has a better chance of winning than Carter (48% for Reagan vs. 44% for Carter), a reversal of the expectation in September when half thought Carter would win and 42% guessed Reagan.

Reagan has also slightly widened his margin among independent voters, leading Carter 41% to 33%. Among young voters, Reagan is now favored, 42% to 36%. One of the most remarkable findings of the poll is that Anderson, for all his appeal on college campuses, is backed by only 14% of the young. Among voters over age 65, Carter and Reagan are tied.

In the South, Reagan is ahead, 46% to 43%, and thus threatens to crack Carter's 1976 electoral stronghold in his home region. The Governor, who has long been popular in some sections of the South, is being helped by the votes of white Protestants (51% to 39%), who favor him mainly because of his well-known conservative views and partly because of his alliance with television-era fundamentalist preachers.

The major campaign and advertising effort to convince voters that Reagan compiled a good record as Governor of California has apparently succeeded: 56% of his supporters say that is an important reason for backing him. Reagan is also profiting heavily from a feeling that it is simply "time for a change," a point cited by 85% of his supporters.

Reagan continues to project an image as a President with the determination to "stand up to the Russians" more forcefully than Carter. The Governor is generally viewed as a man who would bring better people into Government than the President; who would have done more to get the hostages out of Iran; who would keep U.S. defenses strong; who would "make Americans feel good about themselves" and who would do more to decrease U.S. dependence on foreign oil. He is also widely identified as being in favor of an immediate tax cut, a position approved of by 64% of all voters.

In small ways, there are signs that both major contenders are achieving a degree of acceptance among voters. The sharply negative judgments about Carter's presidency are softening; 55% of those surveyed think Carter is actually a better President than he is given credit for. Reagan, on the other hand, has managed to overcome to some degree the inherent doubts many voters have about any chal lenger's ability to be President. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed say Reagan has shown presidential stature by the way he has been conducting his campaign.

Although there is a small drift to ward Carter, the race quite clearly is virtually even. The key variable may be the degree of turnout among the sup porters of the two candidates, which the Yankelovich survey makes no attempt to predict. But the poll did ask whether voters were looking forward to Election Day or whether they wished they did not have to make any choice at all. Thirty percent say they would rather avoid making a selection. That figure, moreover, rises to 55% among the undecided, the very group now tending toward President Carter. What is more, fully one-third of minority group voters who are heavily for Carter share this lingering reluctance to vote. And it will be these reluctant voters who are likely to make up their minds, once and for all, only in the final hours of the campaign. They will decide which man will win the White House.

*The study was based on a national sample of 1,632 registered voters interviewed from Oct. 14 to 16. The sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, and 4.5 percentage points when compared with previous TIME studies.

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