Praising with Faint Damns

By Ellie McGrath

Most foreign leaders prefer Carter--but reluctantly

During the 1972 presidential campaign several Italian newspapers suggested that choosing the leader of the West was too important a decision to be left only to Americans. It is a notion that world leaders would eagerly endorse this year. Although they are discreetly keeping their feelings to themselves, they are watching the 1980 campaign with varying degrees of disdain and dismay. In general, they like none of the three candidates, though most would reluctantly cast their ballots for Jimmy Carter. West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt expressed one major reason when he told aides, "At least I have got more or less used to Carter." But local and regional considerations also play a role, both for leaders who favor the incumbent and for the few who support Ronald Reagan:

Soviet Union. The government newspaper Izvestiya describes the differences between Carter and Reagan as ";rather dubious."

But the Kremlin's U.S. specialists favor Carter, chiefly because he supports SALT II, which Soviet Party Chief Leonid Brezhnev regards as one of his major accomplishments. The Soviets also believe that Carter is more reasonable than Reagan and perhaps more amenable to relaxing East-West tensions. The satellites generally agree. Says an East German diplomat: "Everybody's afraid of Reagan."

Western Europe. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher likes Carter personally and thinks he should be given more credit for his handling of the crises in Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf and Poland. But she is an exception. Most NATO leaders still consider Carter naive and inconsistent. On the other hand, they fear that Reagan's opposition to SALT II could threaten detente and start a new cold war--with them in the middle. Even in France, which traditionally prefers Republican Presidents because, in French eyes, their foreign policy seems more disciplined, the G.O.P. contender is known as "Ronnie-le-cowboy."

Western Europe's apprehensions about Reagan are tempered by the hope that his foreign policy might be set largely by his Cabinet. Many Europeans would be delighted if Reagan named Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State, former NATO Commander Alexander Haig as Defense Secretary and George Schulz as Treasury Secretary. In that case, Schmidt has told aides, "Reagan would not be all that bad."

Middle East. One group of top Israeli officials argues that Carter, despite his tilt toward Egypt in the peace talks, is at least a known quantity. Says a government official: "We do not know what Reagan is going to say or what he is going to do if he becomes President." But other Israelis maintain that Carter is too unpredictable and that Reagan would at least conduct a tough Soviet policy, which the Israelis advocate. Egyptian officials speculate that if Carter got a second term, he would be free from re-election considerations and more willing to push Israel harder to grant meaningful autonomy to the Palestinians. The Egyptians fear Reagan would side so strongly with Israel that the peace process would collapse.

Leaders of Arab oil-exporting states apprehensively recall that one of Reagan's advisers, Robert Tucker, a foreign policy specialist at Johns Hopkins University, sketched in Commentary in 1975 a hypothetical U.S. strategy for seizing the Arab oilfields. On the other side of the Persian Gulf, Iran's leaders are divided. President Abolhassan Banisadr's faction considers Carter preferable to Reagan, but Banisadr's clerical rivals contend that "both are tools of imperialism."

Africa. Because of his Administration's strong backing for majority rule in southern Africa, most black leaders favor Carter. They widely share Nigerian Minister of External Affairs Ishaya Audu's apprehension that a Reagan victory would "slow down the momentum of liberation movements in Namibia and South Africa for some time." Black Africans also fear that Reagan would ease U.S. pressure on South Africa over apartheid.

Asia. China would prefer to continue dealing with Carter, essentially because he was responsible for normalizing diplomatic relations and because of Reagan's statements about strengthening U.S. ties with Taiwan. By contrast, Taiwan's leaders believe that Reagan would be more willing than Carter to sell them advanced fighter aircraft and less tempted to pressure them into negotiating with the mainland on reunification. i Japan is content with Carter, largely because officials are afraid that Reagan would set tougher limits on their exports to the U.S. Reagan Adviser Glenn Campbell, director of the Hoover Institution, dismayed some Japanese by suggesting last week in Tokyo that Japan take a more active military role to protect its oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. But two other U.S. Asian allies, Thailand and the Philippines, lean toward Reagan. In the Philippines, says a local political analyst, the government of Ferdinand Marcos feels "Reagan would support iany regime, regardless of whether or not it is repressive, so long ias it backs America."

The Americas. Canada and Mexico would prefer a Carter victory; they are apprehensive about Reagan. Both regard his vague proposal for a North American common market as a thin disguise for a U.S. attempt to grab their oil, gas and other natural resources. Leftist leaders in Latin America fear that Reagan might bring back big-stick diplomacy. But the continent's right-wing dictators are rooting for Reagan; they think he would soften Carter's human rights policy. Says a high-ranking Argentine military officer: "We want to be treated as allies, not enemies."

On the whole, world leaders are far from enthusiastic about the choice being offered Americans. Like many U.S. voters, they blame it on the primary system. Says a top-ranking of ficial in Bonn's Chancellery: "What seems to matter is who has the most money and the most physical endurance. Political talent and sophistication play a very small part. If they played a larger role, the contest would be between top quality people."

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.