When Jimmy Knew

Traveling with the President in the campaign s last hours, TIME Correspondent Christopher Ogden provided the following report on Jimmy Carter's painful moment of truth:

When Jimmy Carter flew back to Washington on Sunday to handle the hostage crisis, he thought he was in good shape in the polls taken daily by his own expert, Pat Caddell. He had gone into the Cleveland debate one to two points ahead of Reagan by Caddell's soundings, and the trend was in his direction. "It looked good," said one of the President's aides. By Friday, however, the debate results seemed to be taking effect. Jody Powell spoke of a "pause in momentum." Carter had dropped about four points, to one or two behind. But he was still in striking distance. Sunday, new figures had moved the President to five behind. He would have to campaign Monday, and so out he went.

The long day was nearly at an end when Carter's Air Force One dipped out of rainy skies into Seattle Monday night. Hamilton Jordan was on the phone from Washington with Powell. As the plane came in to land, the connection was broken. On the ground, Carter was rushed into the hangar packed with more than 1,000 cheering supporters and gave one of the best speeches of his campaign.

He was exhausted but exhilarated. It was over, and he felt a win was definitely possible. As he leaped off the stage to work the crowd, some junior staffers surprised him by putting on the public address system his 1976 campaign theme song. The tune had not been played since his last campaign. Carter started to choke with emotion when he heard it.

In the meantime, Powell was reconnected with Jordan. The President's chief political strategist had bad news. Caddell had just come over with his latest poll figures. Carter had dropped to ten points behind Reagan. The lead was insurmountable, Caddell had said. Jordan told Powell the election was lost. Powell was profoundly shocked. Carter was still inside shaking hands.

When the President bounded onto the plane for the long flight back to Georgia, Powell readied himself by pouring a stiff drink. He said he needed one to break that kind of news. But before he could collar the President, Carter was back in the staff cabin, talking with Domestic Affairs Adviser Stu Eizenstat and Rick Hertzberg, his chief speechwriter. They had been pleased with the day. The aides agreed that the last appearance had been great. Powell was agonizing. Carter then went back farther in the plane to ask the press pool to come up with him to the front for a chat. That lasted another 45 minutes. Carter still did not know he had lost before the polls even opened.

Finally, after they were in the air more than an hour, and Carter had finished a double martini, Powell got the President alone. Calling him "Governor," as he often does in private, Powell passed on Caddell's findings. Carter was devastated. He couldn't believe it. "In one sense, both he and Rosalynn were so naive," said an aide. "They had just never even considered the possibility of losing."

Rosalynn met her husband at the helipad when he arrived in Plains. When he told her the grim news, she was incredulous. She spent the rest of the morning fighting to maintain control, looking as if she had been hit in the stomach with a sandbag. On the flight to Washington after voting in Plains, they were finally alone in their forward cabin. They broke down together and cried.

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