Washington Memo

By Aryn Baker

A few weeks ago, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said in an interview that if he ever felt that the people didn't support him, he would stand down. The Pakistani people have spoken: Musharraf's party was trounced in the Feb. 18 election, earning only 42 seats out of 272 elected positions in the National Assembly, far fewer than the parties of the recently assassinated Benazir Bhutto and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The question is, Will Musharraf listen? And more important, does the U. S. Administration, which has always seen him as its best ally in the war on terrorism, want him to?

Senator Joseph Biden, who observed the elections in Lahore as part of a U.S. delegation, said the results make it clear that U.S. policy in the region should "move from personality to the people." But behind the scenes, U.S. officials are encouraging the victorious parties to work with Musharraf, still their favorite personality. A coalition among Musharraf and Sharif (whom he ousted in a 1999 coup) and Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari is a nice idea, but it may be too late. Zardari and Sharif have publicly asked Musharraf to resign. They have the support of Pakistanis, still angry over Musharraf's recent dismissal of the Supreme Court and six-week suspension of the constitution.

The President has dismissed such calls, but if Zardari and Sharif join forces with some smaller parties, Musharraf may not have a choice, short of a dramatic move, like dissolving parliament. "I am perceiving a rat-and-cat game," says Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, Musharraf's former Information Minister, who lost his seat after 30 years in government. "Musharraf wants to stay in government, whereas the parties are not ready to accept him." This clash of political wills promises a brutal test for Pakistan. If it can be resolved, Pakistan's transition to real democracy may have begun.

With reporting by With Reporting by Khudyar Khan/Rawalpindi